Harvest 2024-25: WA crop tipped to crack 20 million tonnes as forecast lifted again

WA’s harvest is now being tipped to hit a whopping 20 million tonnes after the Grain Industry Association of WA lifted its 2024-25 crop production forecast by more than 1Mt.

The figure was revealed on Friday in GIWA’s final monthly crop report for the year, which concluded the 2024-25 harvest “will easily end up being the third largest on record”.

Report author Michael Lamond said earlier forecasts had already been exceeded with “a week or two” still to go before the harvest is finished.

“The estimated total tonnage for the state is just under 20 million tonnes, although the final tonnage is likely to be higher than this considering there is still up to two weeks of harvesting to go,” he said.

“2024 will go down as a defining moment for grain production in Western Australia with the amount of grain produced from the rain that has fallen.”

According to the report, growers in the Kwinana port zone are on track to harvest 8.849Mt, followed by Albany (4.635Mt), Esperance (3.045Mt) and Geraldton (3.351Mt).

The exceptional outlook comes despite a worryingly dry start to the season and low rainfall across much of the State.

Mr Lamond said pre-harvest estimates of yields for wheat, barley and canola had proved to be well below actual yields.

“There is no single factor influencing the incredible quantity of grain being harvested right across the State on very little rainfall,” he said.

“The timing and intensity of rainfall, little waterlogging, few cold temperatures in winter, low disease and low weed competition levels have meant less stress on the crops during the growing season in areas away from the Geraldton port zone, which did experience some significant waterlogging.

“Other factors such as more subsoil moisture reserves than first thought in some areas, the large area of crop in the low rainfall regions on fallow, and crops not producing high biomass — effectively saving the moisture in the ground for later in the season — have helped as well.

“The season effectively managed the crop canopy, restricting biomass and converting more rain than is usually the case into grain.”

New grain varieties “keep getting better”, Mr Lamond said, with more top end yield potential and improved water and nitrogen use efficiency.

CHALLENGES

Despite issues with small grain and grain weight in most regions, he said the biggest impact on quality had been rainfall at the start of harvest that lingered for several days, resulting in sprouted grain.

Further rainfall events caused normally “safe” varieties with genetically high falling number indexes to drop below the point where they could be delivered into higher-grade segregations.

“This hit on price has taken the shine off a high production year for affected growers. Wheat grain protein is low across the State due to dilution from the high yields even where there are high screenings,” Mr Lamond said.

Falling numbers testing — used to check the quality of sprouted or rain-affected grains — was introduced at CBH receival sites to preserve the quality of the harvest.

It is used to manage stacks and grower loads, ensuring each load delivered can achieve the highest grade possible, while individual segregations remain within market specification.

Barley malt deliveries have been down compared to recent years according to the report.

However, due to the large area planted, the spread of that area across the regions, and high yields, there would likely be “adequate” tonnages to meet market requirements.

THE MAGIC 20

Once thought impossible, the WA crop cracked 20Mt for the first time in history in 2021-22, when growers harvested a whopping 24Mt.

That record was smashed the next year when WA’s crop production soared to more than 26Mt, pumping $10 billion into the State’s economy.

But tough growing conditions and a blunt finish then saw WA’s harvest plummet to 14.5Mt in 2023-24.

Despite that, WA grain production remained on an upward linear trajectory.

CBH on Monday predicted this year’s harvest would be wrapped up by Christmas, as deliveries of grain continue to pour into the co-operative’s receival sites.

It comes after CBH posted two consecutive daily receival records in the final week of November, as growers took advantage of a clear run after rain caused harvest delays across the grainbelt.

CBH posted the biggest day of receivals in its 91-year history on November 28, with 623,500t of grain delivered, before 630,600t was delivered the next day.