Joe Spagnolo: After 2021 bloodbath, Roger Cook has a lot to live up to at 2025 WA State Election

One of the most-asked questions in the lead-up to the State election has centred on the pass mark for Libby Mettam. How many seats do the Libs need to win to save her bacon? For mine, the number of Liberal seats won in the Legislative Assembly needs to be in double digits after polling booths close on March 8 for Mettam to keep her job — for the short term, anyway — as leader of the WA Liberal Party. But what about Roger Cook? What’s Cook’s pass mark at this election? Cook is like a guy who becomes the new coach of a footy side, just after they have won a premiership. There’s a lot to live up to. He heads into this election with a lead of 53 to six seats over the Liberal-Nationals Opposition, courtesy of Mark McGowan in 2021. Cook, as has been widely forecast for the past two years, will win this election. But how much does he need to win by to ensure he is seen as the real deal by his colleagues and the public? In Labor’s perfect little world, losing five or six seats at this election would prompt them to bring out the chardonnay. Privately, they’ve written off Nedlands, Carine and Churchlands, and expect to lose Warren-Blackwood and Kalamunda. But they’re nervous about losing seats like Kingsley, Scarborough, South Perth, Albany, Geraldton and Kalgoorlie. A win is a win is a win, isn’t it? Not quite, particularly when you are eyeing off a fourth term of government by winning the 2029 election. Winning a fourth term these days is unheard of, particularly because in WA we have fixed four-year terms. And unless Cook leads Labor to an emphatic victory at this election, not only does that 2029 election win look shaky, but he remains vulnerable to being replaced as leader prior to the 2029 poll. No one likes losing government. Ministers get used to being chauffeured around and they like their $306,000 pay packets and other perks. Backbenchers like their summer and winter breaks — and $173,000 salaries. I do not believe Cook will contest the 2029 poll, despite him saying he will. But that decision might be made for him if the result in just a few weeks is below expectations. There will be, I am sure, a strong argument behind the scenes prior to 2029 that Labor will need to reinvent itself to keep winning. New ministers, a new direction and, dare I say it, new leader. All these things will be talked about when Labor plots how to defend its position come 2029. And you must remember, Roger Cook, come 2029, will either have been deputy leader or leader of the WA Labor Party for 21 years — a long time in politics. I am positive leadership aspirants Rita Saffioti and Amber-Jade Sanderson will both want to take Labor into the 2029 poll. And the only way Cook can keep Saffioti and Sanderson at bay over the long term is an emphatic win on March 8. Saffioti, in particular, would be keeping a close eye on the continuing good fortunes of her old buddies Ben Wyatt and Mark McGowan in the private sector, envious of their million-dollar plus post-politics pay packets. I doubt very much Saffioti will stick around in politics if she does not get the top gig before 2029. But Cook needs a strong victory for another reason. If he wants any say in the makeup of his post-March 8 Cabinet, he must win big. He will command greater authority over the WA Labor Party if he leads Labor to an emphatic victory. Unions and factions traditionally pick Labor ministers. Premiers pick portfolios. The only way that changes is if Cook stands before the party faithful on election night with a swag of seats showing red on the screen behind him. Cook will need to emulate the 2017 election result — when Labor won 41 out of 59 seats in the Assembly — to call March 8 a good day out.