US election unpredictable but Australia pact a sure bet

While many Australians are sour about the prospect of a second Trump presidency, trust in the bilateral relationship remains strong as Americans head to the polls.

Former US president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are vying for the White House with polls showing the pair neck-and-neck ahead of voting day on Tuesday (Wednesday, Australia time).

Concerns have been raised within Australia's political class about what a Trump presidency would mean with his favouring of trade tariffs, protectionist policies and capricious mindset.

While it would be a "fool's errand" to predict what Mr Trump would do given inconsistencies in a number of policy areas, he had an appetite for tariffs, especially towards China, US politics expert Jared Mondschein said.

However, the Biden administration had kept the tariffs and put in place its own restrictions, including against Chinese electric vehicles, the United States Studies Centre research director said.

Mr Trump favoured leveraging tariffs to negotiate trade deals but a Harris administration would be more hesitant to sign any pact with doubt Beijing would adhere to any deal, he said.

"More tariffs going up globally is not something most governments want to navigate," he said.

There was more agreement on foreign policy, with both candidates loath to become more involved in the Middle East and a more hawkish view of China remaining, Mr Mondschein said.

He expected a focus on the Indo-Pacific to remain.

"As we learned from World War II, the strategic value of the region cannot be underestimated," he said.

That 37 per cent of Australians telling a USSC poll they wanted to leave the alliance under a Trump presidency had dropped to 26 per cent in a year meant it was backed "regardless if the US is led by someone they don't support", he said.

The trilateral AUKUS agreement under which Australia will work with America and Britain to acquire nuclear-powered submarines was also safeguarded despite speculation Mr Trump could pull the pin if he wants to bolster US naval power.

Australia is helping prop up the American industrial base so it can sell three to five Virginia-class submarines from the early 2030s.

The pact that increased military spending and made partners more self-reliant in defence was something the Americans had been pushing allies to do, Mr Mondschein said.

"Australia has bipartisan support, AUKUS is something we get asked about quite a bit and that's not something I see as at risk in a Trump or Harris win," he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is working to allay concerns ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd would be at risk if Mr Trump regained the White House.

Mr Trump had described Mr Rudd as "nasty" and said he would not last long as ambassador if he was re-elected after the former Labor prime minister was critical of him.

Australia would continue to work closely with American officials regardless of who was president, Mr Albanese said, noting he'd met with Republicans and Democrats during a trip to the US.

"Australia decides who our ambassador is and Mr Rudd is doing a terrific job," he told ABC Radio on Monday.

Mr Mondschein said the ambassador successfully navigated relationships across the board and had been an effective messenger Australia needed to remain calm if there was a Trump presidency.