Nationals eye rocky path to Bullwinkel victory as polling puts Labor ahead

Labor leads the Nationals 52-48 in the battleground federal seat of Bullwinkel, according to secret polling that has given the country party confidence star Mia Davies can pull off an upset win. The numbers seen by The West emerge as Nationals leader David Littleproud met with Keep the Sheep campaigners in Canberra to urge them to swing their $500,000 war chest behind Ms Davies. But WA Farmers president John Hassell, part of the Keep the Sheep steering committee, insists the organisation’s campaign will not endorse any particular party or candidate. The new electorate of Bullwinkel, which takes in Perth’s hills and foothills area as well as part of the Wheatbelt, is shaping as a genuine three-way contest between Labor, the Liberals and Nationals. The Nationals have picked Ms Davies, their former State party leader, to run in the seat while the Liberals preselected former journalist, political staffer and army veteran Matt Moran. Labor is yet to choose a candidate with State MP Kyle McGinn so far the only person to throw their hat in the ring. However, the party is preparing to unveil a different candidate within days, likely a woman who insiders are confident will increase Labor’s competitiveness in the seat. The Nationals consider themselves the underdog but view the seat as winnable. That view has been reinforced by the findings of party-commissioned polling of 800 Bullwinkel voters, which showed Labor’s primary vote on 22 per cent, followed by the Nationals on 20 per cent and the Liberals lagging on 12 per cent. The Greens were on 10 per cent, equal with independents. Significantly, almost a quarter of voters — 23 per cent — were undecided, giving the Nationals hope that if Ms Davies can sway that cohort she can win the seat. A senior Nationals source said Ms Davies’ campaign had not properly begun yet while she finished off the sitting year in the State parliament. The polling also showed Ms Davies, whose State seat overlaps with the Bullwinkel draft boundaries, had a net satisfaction of +19 points in the area. The West understands there will be a “procession” of federal Nationals to WA in coming months as the party throws everything at winning the seat. Mr Littleproud flew west earlier in the month to announce Ms Davies’ candidacy, and she was in Canberra on Tuesday for meetings with senior Nationals figures. The party also has high hopes of support from the Keep the Sheep campaign. The coalition of farming groups was formed to battle Labor’s live sheep export ban and has so far raised $500,000. At the moment, it has Bullwinkel, Tangney and Hasluck in its sights, but the group believes it can add a seat for every extra $100,000 raised. However, Mr Hassell said there was absolutely no ambition to back particular candidates; rather, the campaign would point out the effects of Labor’s policy. “We haven’t actually come out and said don’t vote for Labor. We haven’t come out and said do vote for the Nationals or the Liberals,” he told The West. “What we’ve said is, this is a really bad policy and it’s going to hurt not just sheep farmers, it’s going to hurt the small communities in the Wheatbelt, but it’ll also hurt mainstream Australians because it will push up the cost of living and reduce jobs.” Ms Davies was keen to highlight she did not intend to run a single-issue campaign in the area. “Saving the sheep industry is a priority for me and The Nationals have never wavered on our support for this sector or the communities it underpins,” she told The West. “But we’ll also be laser-focused on initiatives to ease the pressure on household budgets and getting the priorities right when we spend taxpayer dollars… Each community will have their priorities and aspirations and it’ll be my job to earn their trust.”