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Spotlight on monthly inflation numbers

Poppy JohnstonAAP
October's consumer price index numbers from the bureau of statistics will be watched closely. (Jeremy Ng/AAP PHOTOS)
Camera IconOctober's consumer price index numbers from the bureau of statistics will be watched closely. (Jeremy Ng/AAP PHOTOS) Credit: AAP

Inflationary pressures in the economy likely stabilised at the lower end of the central bank's target range last month, data due this week could show.

But progress on underlying measures, which strip away volatility and are the focus of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is tipped to be less subdued and consistent with interest rates staying on hold at the next board meeting in December.

The October consumer price index numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics due on Wednesday will be watched closely.

While not as comprehensive as the quarterly releases, the monthly numbers still provide a steer on the potency of price pressures.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists expect headline annual inflation to come in at 2.1 per cent, in line with September's result.

"A fall in prices for rents, electricity, holiday travel and fuel are expected to keep headline inflation near the bottom of the RBA's two-three inflation band," economist Stephen Wu wrote in a note.

He expected the annual trimmed mean measure to tick up to 3.4 per cent, from 3.2 per cent, owing to large price falls a year ago not being repeated, rather than re-accelerating inflation.

Commonwealth Bank and ANZ are still predicting a February start to keenly awaited interest rate cuts, with Westpac last week joining NAB in pushing out its expected start date to May.

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said a sharp improvement in consumer sentiment, a resilient labour market, and central bank communications since the last board meeting, prompted the change in forecast.

"That said, the longer the RBA board waits, the faster they will need to move thereafter, as it would then be more likely that they have hesitated too long," she wrote in a note.

Australians might hear more on the outlook for interest rates on Thursday, when Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the annual CEDA Conference in Sydney.

Other data to be released by the statistics bureau include quarterly updates on construction work, due on Wednesday, and business investment, on Thursday.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday, with all three major indices posting weekly gains as investors took comfort from data pointing to robust economic activity in the world's biggest economy.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 19.55 points, or 0.33 per cent, to end at 5,968.26 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 26.45 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 18,998.87.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 423.28 points, or 0.96 per cent, to 44,293.63.

Australian futures rose 52 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 8,472.

The local share market resumed its upward trend after a two-day breather, setting an all-time closing high for a second time this week.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished up 70.8 points, or 0.85 per cent, to 8,393.8, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 66.1 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 8,633.1.

For the week the ASX200 rose 1.3 per cent, with Friday's close eclipsing the previous record set on Tuesday by 19.8 points.

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