WA election 2025: Labor wins city vote but falls behind in outer suburbs and regional WA with ‘lumpy’ swing

A “lumpy” 18 per cent swing against Labor was seized on by the Liberals and Nationals as evidence of backlash in the bush against gun laws, electoral reforms and aborted cultural heritage reforms. As counting continued on Sunday, there were 18 Labor seats on a margin of less than 10 per cent. The party had experienced an 18 per cent swing against it, split between the Liberals, the Greens and others, with MPs on both sides describing the phenomenon as “lumpy”. The backlash was bigger in Perth’s mortgage belt in the outer suburbs and in regional WA, with a 20 per cent switch towards the Liberal candidate in Collie-Preston likely not enough to unseat Labor MP Jodie Hanns. But it was enough to raise eyebrows, with one Liberal source suggesting Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan posed no problems. “So much for the nuclear scare campaign,” they said. Federal Labor’s looming ban on live sheep exports was a frequent source of complaints to Labor volunteers in Albany, where Liberal candidate Tom Brough was slightly ahead 53-47 in the two-party preferred count, despite Roger Cook leading an attack on his pro-life abortion views. The Premier did pause for thought on regional WA, with Labor MP Lara Dalton out of a job in Geraldton. Kalgoorlie, the Pilbara and Warren-Blackwood were still too close to call on Sunday afternoon. “Obviously in the regions you’ve got a couple of issues which did gain some traction,” Mr Cook said. “That will provide us with an opportunity to reflect on those and see if there’s any learnings from that.” But he wasn’t yet willing to assess the damage in Perth’s mortgage belt. “We’ll leave the final analysis to the final count,” he said. A return to form was widely expected in the wake of a seismic result in 2021, with the biggest swings in Armadale, Joondalup, Bunbury, Butler, Forrestfield and Swan Hills — where Labor had margins big enough to withstand it. The Greens, One Nation and other minor parties all benefited from a drop in primary vote support for the major parties. Labor’s first preference vote fell from a record 59.9 per cent in 2021 to 41.8 per cent — still a long way ahead of the Liberals’ 28.6 per cent. “It’s interesting, isn’t it, that even though there was some swings against us, and that was anticipated, that it didn’t go to the Liberals,” Mr Cook said. “What that suggests to me is that the Liberals, quite frankly, didn’t put a case to the people of WA that they’ve earned the right to receive their vote.”